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President Donald Trump's condition is improving as he is being treated for Covid-19 at a military hospital, and he could return to the White House as early as Monday, where his treatment would continue, the doctors leading his treatment said. White House physician Sean Conley answers questions, surrounded by other doctors, during an update on the condition of Donald Trump Photo: AFP Doctors provided Trump supplemental oxygen twice during his battle with the lung disease, on Thursday and Friday, and have also given him dexamethasone, they told reporters the day after a series of contradictory messages from the White House caused widespread confusion about Trump's condition. Dexamethasone is shown in studies to improve survival for patients hospitalized with critical Covid-19 who need extra oxygen. But it should not be given in mild cases since it can limit the body's own ability to combat the virus, according to guidelines from the Infectious Disease Society of America. "The fact of the matter is that he's doing really well," Dr. Sean P. Conley told reporters at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where Trump has been receiving treatment since Friday. Doctors said Trump has not run a fever since Friday and that his liver and kidney function remained normal after the second dose in a five-day course of Remdesivir, an intravenous antiviral drug sold by Gilead Sciences Inc that has been shown to shorten hospital stays. Dr Brian Garibaldi said Trump was given dexamethasone in response to "transient low oxygen levels." "He received his first dose of that yesterday and our plan is to continue that for the time being," Garibaldi said. Trump is also being given an experimental treatment, Regeneron's REGN-COV2, as well as zinc, Vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and aspirin, his doctors have said. President Trump said in a video on Saturday the "real test" of his condition will come over the next few days. Photo: EyePress via AFP Trump released a four-minute video on Saturday in which he said the "real test" of his condition will come over the next few days. "Over the next period of a few days, I guess that's the real test, so we'll be seeing what happens over those next couple of days," Trump said into the camera, looking tired and wearing a jacket and open-necked shirt. Trump's illness has upended the campaign ahead of the November presidential election and cast a spotlight on the president's handling of the pandemic. The Republican president is trailing Democratic rival Joe Biden in opinion polls. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Sunday found that Biden had opened a 10 point lead over Trump nationally, slightly wider than it has been for the past two months. Some 65% of Americans said Trump likely would not have been infected had he taken the virus more seriously -- a view that half of registered Republicans polled supported. Some 55% said they did not believe Trump had been telling the truth about the virus. Trump has repeatedly played down the threat of the pandemic, even as it has killed more than 208,000 Americans and hammered the U.S. economy. 'Upbeat attitude of the team' Differing assessments of Trump's health from administration officials on Saturday left it unclear how ill the president had become since he tested positive for the coronavirus on Thursday night. A White House team of doctors said on Saturday morning Trump's condition was improving and that he was already talking about returning to the White House. Within minutes, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows gave reporters a less rosy assessment, saying, "The president's vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care. We're still not on a clear path to a full recovery." Meadows, whose initial comments were delivered on condition that he not be identified, altered his tone hours later, telling Reuters that Trump was doing "very well" and that "doctors are very pleased with his vital signs." In an interview with Fox News broadcast Saturday night, Meadows revealed that Trump's condition on Friday was far worse than officials had made public, saying doctors recommended the president go to the hospital after seeing he had a fever and his blood oxygen level dropped rapidly. Conley commented on the contradictory assessments on Sunday. "I was trying to reflect an upbeat attitude of the team and the president about the course his illness has had," Conley told reporters on Sunday. "I didn't want to give any information that might steer the course of illness in another direction and in doing so, it came off that we were trying to hide something, which isn't necessarily true." 'Aggressive' campaign continues Trump's campaign vowed that Vice President Mike Pence, who would assume the presidency if Trump were unable to carry out his duties, would have an "aggressive" campaign schedule this week, as would Trump's three oldest children. "We can't stay in our basement or shut down the economy indefinitely. We have to take it head-on," Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday. With Trump off the campaign trail indefinitely, his campaign announced "Operation MAGA," based on his slogan "Make America Great Again," which will see high-profile allies including Pence and Trump's elder sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, take over in-person campaigning this week. Pence, who tested negative on Friday, is scheduled to debate Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris on Wednesday. Biden, who largely avoided direct criticism of Trump during a campaign trip to Michigan on Friday, took a more aggressive tone on Saturday while speaking to a transit workers' union, even as he wished the president well. "I'm in a little bit of a spot here, because I don't want to be attacking the president and the first lady now," Biden said, adding he hoped Trump and his wife Melania, who also has the illness, make a full recovery. But he quickly turned to Trump's response to the pandemic, calling it "unconscionable" and blasting Trump's comment in an interview this summer that "it is what it is" when asked about the death toll. Biden, who tested negative on Friday, told reporters he would next be tested on Sunday. His campaign will begin releasing the results of each test, a spokesman said. A number of other prominent Republicans have also tested positive for coronavirus since Trump's announcement, including Republican senators Mike Lee, Thom Tillis and Ron Johnson, former White House senior adviser Kellyanne Conway and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. - Reuters

In his latest book, BBC New York correspondent Nick Bryant says we are not just witnessing America's post-millenial decline, but also the country's disintegration. When America Stopped Being Great is Bryant's latest book and follows on the heels of his 2014 title The Rise and Fall of Australia. Photo: Supplied In it, Bryant argues that while the presidency of Donald Trump is commonly seen as an historical accident, by 2016 it had become almost inevitable. "What the book charts is how we went from Reagan's Morning Again in America to Donald Trump's American carnage and also tragically the mass mourning that we've seen in America as a result of Covid-19," Bryant said. Bryant describes former US President Ronald Reagan as "a godfather of modern day polarisation". "It was Reagan who really brought together the modern day conservative movement, he was the first president for instance to be endorsed by the National Rifle Association,  the NRA, this divorce, rather like Donald Trump, had an unusually close relationship with the evangelical movement. "But he also changed the nature of the presidency, he made it more performative and I think he paved the way for somebody like Donald Trump who was this kind of performative president, who wasn't so interested in the back office as the front office." A former actor, Reagan perceived the presidency as the great role of his lifetime, Bryant said. Bryant said an emphasis on performance in the presidential debates has made it difficult for candidates without charisma or who are not "telegenic". "It's almost as if we've turned them into an audition for the leading role rather than a job interview where we deal with substance." He said debates tend to be judged on who can deliver the Reagan-like one liners and debates have become about entertainment rather than elucidation. Bryant said race is still the angriest faultline in American politics and the key to understanding why the country is so divided. "America has never got over the divisions caused by the original sin of slavery, by the divisions caused by the US Civil War, by the divisions caused by the segregation that followed it and the divisions caused by how segregation came to be dismantled in the mid 1960s." He said race is also the reason that the Republicans became so dominant in presidential politics. "From 1968 to 1992 when Bill Clinton beat George Herbert Walker Bush the Republicans only lost the presidency once to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and that was post Watergate." He said the Republicans have done so well in presidential races by exploiting white concerns about black advance. Journalists have enabled the Trump phenomenon Bryant said there is a "better story bias" amongst campaign reporters. A lot of campaign reporters write the narrative of the campaign that provides "maximum journalistic entertainment value". "Let me give you an example, the year 2000 Al Gore got a terrible press partly because nobody wanted to cover a third term of a Clinton administration, which is essentially what Al Gore would've been, without the most charismatic protagonist Bill Clinton in the White House. The much better story was a Bush restoration, a son following his father into the presidency." He said in 2008 the journalistic community decided the first black American president, Barack Obama, would make a better story than Hillary Clinton as the first female president. "I think in the primary campaign, when they fought each other, Barack Obama did end up getting much better press." He said the same thing happened in 2016 with Donald Trump, who came along at a time when there was a desolate media landscape. "And along comes the ultimate clickbait candidate, the guy that delivers ratings, the guy that everybody wants to watch on TV, the guy that gets people on to cable news. "I think that was a classic case of better story bias, you know Donald Trump's candidacy would have far more journalistic entertainment value and his campaign was far more interesting for journalists, than that of Hillary Clinton." Missing the indicators Bryant said much of his book is about how the media missed the trendlines and saw Donald Trump as an "historical accident" when so many things that were happening in the US culminated in his candidacy. When Trump said "the American dream is dead" millions of Americans agreed with him that the economy would not provide a better life for their children. The Republican Party had become an anti-Obama party, "so it made perfect sense for them to go for the most virulently anti-Obama candidate," Bryant said. And then technology put the powerful political weapons of Twitter and Facebook in the hands of Trump, he said. Bryant argues that every single president from Reagan on has in some way contributed to Trump's rise. He said Obama had two years to make things happen when he had a solid Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. "He was far more effective in advocating for himself than his party," Bryant said. "He was far better at building a kind of Obama machine than a Democratic Party machine and when he left office the Democratic Party was not in a good shape." Bryant said even if Trump is not president next year, Trumpism will not disappear because the things that led to his rise are still there. Many people feel like economic castaways in a global economy that they have never been able to make a living from, he said. Another big problem is race and there is no sign of healing in America. There is such dysfunction on Capitol Hill that it is hard to see how the Democrats and Republicans can forge a consensus. Bryant said a functioning democracy relies on an agreed set of facts which is problematic with the spread of disinformation and failure to agree on even basic facts, Bryant said. The personal Both Bryant and his wife contracted Covid-19 and at the time his wife was heavily pregnant. "Covid became the concluding chapter to the book, that obviously I never wanted to write." He said his wife gave birth to their third child in tumultuous circumstances. Not only was there an economic crisis and a health crisis due to Covid-19, but the US had the greatest racial turbulence it's had since 1968, he said. "And much of that racial turbulence, ironically, was playing out outside of our door, outside of our windows, we live very close to the Brooklyn Bridge and the Manhattan Bridge." Their daughter was born on the third night of the New York curfew, although the midwife and her assistant did manage to get through to attend the home birth as essential workers, he said. Bryant said he arrived in the US as a 16-year-old and has always adored the country and felt it had a sense of possibility and ambition. But he said the birth of his daughter is causing him to feel conflicted about the US. "Do I want America to become her long time home?" "I worry about Honor growing up in a country where mass shootings are so common ... I do look at Washington and wonder how politicians are going to heal their differences, I look at race and I think that's an unbridgeable divide. "I just can't see where this country comes together in a really meaningful and lasting way and that's why I worry." Bryant said there is talk of a post-American world, but he worries that we are seeing a post-America America.

The US president says he has experienced "an outpouring of love" from around the world but the next few days will be critical as he battles Covid-19. Donald Trump, speaking from teh Walter Reed Medical Centre, says he could have isolated himself in the White House but it was better to be "out front". Photo: Twitter / screenshot In a four-minute video posted to Twitter today, Donald Trump, sitting in what appears to be an office at the Walter Reed Medical Centre in Maryland, has particularly addressed a message to the American people. Earlier today Trump's doctors spoke to media for the first time and said they were pleased with his progress. However, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows also spoke to journalists saying there had been a lot of concern about Trump's health in the last 24 hours. The New York Times also reported that he was given oxygen at the White House to help him breathe. Trump was flown by Marine One to the hospital yesterday after he and his wife, Melania, were diagnosed with the virus the previous day. He said he was thankful for all the support within the US, which he described as a "bipartisan consensus" of American people. "It's a beautiful thing to see, I very much appreciate it and I won't forget it, I promise you that." pic.twitter.com/gvIPuYtTZG — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 3, 2020 Trump said he had been given the opportunity to isolate himself in the White House but he couldn't do that. "I had to be out front ...This is the United States, ... the most powerful country in the world. I can't be locked up in a room upstairs and totally safe and just say whatever happens, happens. "...As a leader you have to confront problems. There's never been a great leader who would have done that." Donald Trump leaves the White House on Marine One. Photo: AFP Still work to finish, president says Trump said he was not feeling so well when he arrived at the hospital but he felt a lot better now. "We're working hard to get me all the way back. I have to be back because we still have to make America great again. "We've done an awfully good job of that but we still have steps to go and we have to finish that job. "I'll be back. I think I'll be back soon and I look forward to finishing up the campaign the way it was started and the way we've been doing ....we've been so proud of it." He said coronavirus had affected millions of people worldwide and he was fighting on everyone's behalf. Trump promised the coronavirus would be beaten, in part because of the therapeutics that he was already taking and some that were in the pipeline. "We have things happening that look like miracles coming down from God." He was grateful to the medical professionals at the Walter Reed Medical Centre who were the finest in the world, he said. Trump also thanked leaders from around the world who had passed on their messages of support. He said the First Lady, Melania, was doing well and was handling the virus "very nicely" and she was a "tiny bit" younger than him. Melania is actually 24 years younger than the president. Donald Trump with wife, Melania. (file pic) Photo: Sarah Silbiger / Getty Images / AFP "Melania is handling it statistically like it's supposed to be handled and that makes me very happy and it makes the country very happy. "But I'm also doing well and I think we're going to have a very good result. Again, over the next few days we're going to probably know for sure." He said he would not forget the "incredible outpouring of love" that has been shown from around the world, but most especially from Americans. Enthusiasts show support Supporters of Trump have gathered with placards and flowers outside the Walter Reed National Military Hospital near Washington where the president is being treated for coronavirus. In New York, supporters gathered at a pro-Trump rally on Staten Island. Elsewhere in the country, they took to their boats while in Columbus, Ohio, there was a parade of cars. Supporters outside the hospital in Maryland. Photo: AFP Other Trump loyalists took to the water in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Photo: AFP

Dominic Raab has said he was "really worried" UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could have died from Covid-19 after he was admitted to intensive care in the northern hemisphere spring. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spent time in intensive care during his bout of Covid-19. Photo: Anthony Devlin / Pool / AFP The foreign secretary stood in for Johnson during his time in intensive care and while he recovered. Speaking to the Conservative Party conference, Raab said the virus "nearly took the life" of the prime minister. Raab also said he worried for the PM's fiancee Carrie Symonds but "always had faith" he would "pull through". Johnson spent three nights in intensive care at London's St Thomas' Hospital in April after contracting coronavirus. Speaking about his experience after leaving hospital, Johnson said it "could have gone either way" and thanked healthcare workers for saving his life. Raab told the virtual conference that coronavirus had "hit us hard, taking lives on a tragic scale". "It nearly took the life of our prime minister, our friend as well as our leader. "I get asked a lot how I felt, when I covered for him. "Well, I really worried we might lose him, and I was worried for Carrie (Symonds), pregnant with baby Wilf. "But I always had faith that with the outstanding NHS [National Health Service] care he received and his fighting spirit, he'd pull through." Dominic Raab: The coronavirus has "hit us hard, taking lives on a tragic scale". Photo: AFP Admitting there would be "lessons to be learnt" following the government's handling of the crisis, the foreign secretary added: "I have to say, for every hurdle we faced, with every heart-rending loss, there was also a tale of courage, a moment of inspiration." Efforts continue for 'fair' Brexit deal Raab also spoke about the prospect of a post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and the EU. The UK and the EU have pledged to "work intensively" in order to resolve their differences and reach a deal. But Raab said that although the government wanted a free trade deal with the EU, "any deal must be fair". "The days of being held over a barrel by Brussels… are long gone," the foreign secretary said. He added there was "no question the government will control our fisheries". Both sides have been calling on the other to compromise on key issues, which include fishing and government subsidies. Leeds to benefit from Civil Service move Michael Gove Photo: AFP Also speaking at the conference, Michael Gove outlined the government's plans to move more Civil Service jobs outside of London - part of its "levelling up" agenda to spread investment and opportunity beyond London and south-east England. The Cabinet Office minister said "far too many government jobs" were based in Westminster and Whitehall. Gove added: "We have an amazing Civil Service and it has drawn its resources and people from lots of different communities - I think we now need to give back to those communities as well." Plans to open a second headquarters in Leeds were also announced. The new headquarters will provide the party with "a base at the heart of the blue wall", party co-chairperson Amanda Milling said, referring to the northern constituencies who voted for the party for the first time at the general election in December. -BBC

At least one person has died and at least 19 are missing after a powerful storm hit southern France and north-western Italy. A three-storey building under renovation collapsed next to a watercourse after flooding in Limone Piemonte, near Cuneo, Piedmont. Photo: AFP Named Alex, it brought fierce winds and torrential rains causing severe floods. A number of villages suffered serious damage around the southern city of Nice. Its mayor described it as the worst flooding in living memory. In northern Italy, several roads and bridges were swept away by floodwater, while several rivers burst their banks. The man who died was an Italian firefighter in the Aosta Valley. Another 11 people are said to be missing in the country's north-west after heavy rains hit overnight. In the Piedmont region, several villages were cut off after the rains made roads impassable. The situation there was described as "extremely critical" by officials. A block of concrete came away from a building in a watercourse following floods in Limone Piemonte, near Cuneo, Piedmont. Photo: AFP Hundreds of aid workers have been sent to help rescue efforts in the cut-off villages. The storm also affected the north-western regions of Lombardy and Liguria. The city of Venice, which had been braced for high waters after suffering violent storms in August, was successfully protected by a flood barrier system recently declared fully operational. In France, eight people are said to be missing. Several villages north of Nice, located in steep-sided valleys, have been cut off. After flying over the worst-hit area by helicopter, Nice Mayor Chistian Estrosi told French news channel BFM: "The roads and about 100 houses were swept away or partially destroyed." Trees and waste invaded the bay of Saint Laurent du Var in France after heavy rain. Photo: AFP Meteorological agency Météo-France said 450mm worth of rain fell in some areas over 24 hours - the equivalent of nearly four months of rain at this time of year, reports Reuters news agency. The Alpes-Maritimes department was placed on red alert yesterday, but the alert level has now been downgraded to orange as the storm moves towards Italy. Beaches in Nice and other coastal cities were closed, and people were asked to stay at home, the AFP news agency reports. Yesterday, the storm buffeted France's western Atlantic coast, causing tens of thousands of homes to lose power. Winds of more than 180km/h were recorded in Brittany on Thursday and Friday. -BBC

President Donald Trump is doing "very well" after spending the night in a hospital, his physician Dr Sean Conley says. Donald Trump has told doctors he feels like he could walk out of hospital already. Photo: AFP Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19 on Friday and yesterday he was flown by helicopter from the White House to the Walter Reed Medical Centre in Bethesda, Maryland. At the first medical briefing since he was admitted, Dr Conley said Trump's medical team is "extremely happy with the progress the president has made". He was brought into hospital yesterday as a "precautionary measure", Dr Conley said. White House physician Sean Conley gives an update on the condition of US President Donald Trump, at Walter Reed Medical Centre in Bethesda, Maryland. Photo: AFP The medical team are "monitoring him very closely for any evidence of complications". "And the president this morning is not on oxygen, not having difficulty breathing or walking around the White House medical unit upstairs," Dr Conley said. One of the doctors said Trump told him: "I feel like I could walk out of here today." President Donald Trump leaves Marine One to be admitted to the Walter Reed Medical Centre. Photo: AFP He has been fever-free for over 24 hours, the doctors say. He's receiving both the drug Remdesivir and an experimental treatment. They tackle different aspects of the disease, the doctors say. Remdesivir has been shown to shorten the recovery time from the coronavirus. Trump will complete a five-day course of treatment, his doctors say. They say they are "maximising all aspects of his care" and "don't want to hold anything back". Questions being raised over timing Starting the briefing, Trump's personal doctor said they had decided to move the president to the hospital out of caution. "Just 72 hours into the diagnosis now, the first week of Covid - in particular days seven to 10 - are the most critical in determining the likely course of this illness," Dr Sean Conley said. But as BBC North American editor Jon Sopel pointed out on Twitter, Trump only confirmed his positive test early on Friday morning (US time) - roughly 36 hours ago. My big take out from that briefing - the physician talked about the last 72 hours. What? Confirmation only came yesterday morning from @realDonaldTrump - so did he have #coronavirus on Wednesday, and WH chose not to disclose it? Seems a fair question — Jon Sopel (@BBCJonSopel) October 3, 2020 During the 72 hour timeline given by physician, @realDonaldTrump held a press briefing with no mask, flew to Duluth for rally, went to Bedminster for a fund raiser where no one wore masks. If @WhiteHouse knew he was symptomatic/had #coronavirus isn’t that indefensible? — Jon Sopel (@BBCJonSopel) October 3, 2020 Trump in 'exceptionally good spirits' Sean N Dooley, a pulmonologist also spoke during the briefing, said: "We are monitoring [Trump] very closely for any evidence of complications from either the coronavirus illness or the therapies that we are prescribing to make him better. He is in exceptionally good spirits." President Trump asked doctors about the drug hydroxychloroquine, but is not taking it at this time, his doctors say. Early in the pandemic, he touted the medicine as a treatment for coronavirus - a recommendation not borne out by medical research. First Lady Melania Trump, who has also tested positive, remains at the White House and is not being treated at the Walter Reed military hospital. She is "doing great", the doctors say, and is "convalescing at home". Trump continuing to work at hospital Despite his diagnosis, President Trump is continuing to work from hospital, his doctors say. The presidential suite at the Walter Reed hospital is equipped with an office. The doctors at the Walter Reed hospital are very upbeat about President Trump's condition. However, they don't know how long he'll have to stay there. "More than anything, he's felt run down," Dr Conley said. -BBC

Kellyanne Conway, a former counselor to US President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19. Kellyanne Conway. Photo: AFP "My symptoms are mild (light cough) and I'm feeling fine. I have begun a quarantine process in consultation with physicians," Conway tweeted. Tonight I tested positive for COVID-19. My symptoms are mild (light cough) and I’m feeling fine. I have begun a quarantine process in consultation with physicians.As always, my heart is with everyone affected by this global pandemic. ❤️ — Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) October 3, 2020 Conway is one of a list of high profile coronavirus cases emerging in the states, including Republican senator, Mike Lee, and the president of Notre Dame University, John Bennett - both of whom have recently visited the White House. Donald and Melania Trump both tested positive for Covid-19 yesterday and the President has since been flown to Walter Reed Medical Center as a precautionary measure. Trump released a short video on his Twitter account, 17 hours after his last post, saying he thought he was doing very well and he was heading to hospital "to make sure things work out". pic.twitter.com/B4H105KVSs — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 2, 2020 Trump has a mild fever, according to a source familiar with the matter. White House doctor Sean P Conley wrote in a memo that he is "fatigued but in good spirits." - Reuters

The Prime Minister has sent a get-well message to US President Donald Trump on behalf of New Zealand. The White House Photo: Andrea Izzotti/123RF Speaking to media in Auckland today, Jacinda Ardern said officials at the American embassy have been asked to pass on a message. "Of course, wishing the president of the United States and the first lady New Zealand's best wishes for a speedy recovery." Trump and his wife Melania both tested positive for the virus yesterday, and the White House says Trump was shifted to a military hospital this morning as a precaution. This follows a top aide, Hope Hicks, a counselor for President Trump testing positive for the virus. The president has posted a message saying "we will get through this together", and video saying he is doing very well. Ardern personally texted the British prime minister, Boris Johnson, when he fell ill with Covid. She says in that instance she had a mobile number to text, which is not the case with the US president. Greens party co-leader James Shaw says the development will upset the already-volatile American election campaign. "I wouldn't wish Covid-19 on anybody, we don't want anybody to die of Covid-19, and it just shows the importance of good science and good government to show that we can keep our whole population safe." Shaw cast an advance vote in Wellington this morning, marking the first day of early voting for the New Zealand election.

By Timothy J Lynch* for The Conversation Analysis: With just a month left until the 3 November US presidential election, contracting the coronavirus could have politically positive or negative consequences for President Donald Trump. Donald Trump leaves the White House for a helicopter flight to a military hospital in Washington. Photo: AFP These will, of course, be contingent on how severe the president's illness becomes, with Trump today transferred to a military hospital, the Walter Reed Medical Centre in Washington. But we should not count him out and Democratic challenger Joe Biden in just yet. Here are the ways the diagnosis could swing the election either way for Trump. Negative Trump's days in isolation will halt his intense campaign schedule. Trump was much better at energising crowds in airport hangers than Joe Biden has been. This advantage is now gone. Trump is a sick man. Campaigning in any form requires robust health. Any physical advantage born of being the younger and fitter of the two candidates has now gone. Because he has often disparaged the virulence of the disease, the president faces the public humiliation of being its victim. Trump does not deal well with humiliation - the excoriating account of his childhood, as told by his estranged niece, Mary L Trump, is replete with examples of the young Donald dishing out but being unable to take humiliation. Trump has traded on his strong man image for decades. If he gets a bad dose, he will look every bit and more of his 74 years. If his experience is like that of Boris Johnson, Trump could well be out of action for weeks with the attendant psychological challenge of recovery weighing on him. The British PM, several intimates have observed, is still in recovery, still cognitively and emotionally impaired by his personal fight with Covid-19. Donald Trump's favourite form of politics - addressing a large rally are now off the agenda. (file pic) Photo: AFP Positive There are also potential political advantages in Trump's Covid diagnosis. Because of the virus, Joe Biden was already cautious about face-to-face campaigning. His younger opponent falling ill may well keep Biden more basement-bound and less willing to crisscross the battleground states. Trump's illness could have a positive effect on the tone of political discourse. Biden will not want to be seen to demonise a sick opponent. The presidential debates will almost certainly be cancelled - which will likely mean a more civil national debate. Trump is not the first leader to catch the virus. While Johnson became very sick, Jair Bolsonaro, the Brazilian president, had a relatively mild dose. He was able to claim from personal experience how few people who catch the virus are actually killed by it. This has been Trump's basic refrain over the course of the pandemic. Catching and recovering from the virus will prove he was right all along. Lockdowns, he will insist, were one big overreaction to a contagious but not virulent disease. There will probably be no repeat of the spiteful discourse that marked this week's debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Timothy Lynch writes. Photo: AFP History tells us sick presidential candidates often win the ensuing election - Ronald Reagan nearly died from an assassin's bullet in 1981 but won big in 1984 - or that their party will. When Warren G Harding died in office (in 1923), his Republican party stayed in the White House for another 10 years. Indeed, assassinated presidents tend to guarantee their party retains the White House at the next election: Lincoln's murder in 1865 was a cause of his great general, Ulysses S Grant, winning in 1868. William McKinley's murder in 1903 put his vice president, Theodore Roosevelt, into office for eight years. John Kennedy's assassination in 1963 led to Lyndon Johnson winning in a landslide the next year. Dying is, of course, not Trump's plan, but sickness and death need not mean the Republicans lose the White House. The greatest president in US history, measured by victories (1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944), Franklin Roosevelt, was also the most challenged by his health. A victim of polio, he spent his entire presidency in a wheelchair. The point is not that Covid could turn Trump into FDR. It is to observe how far illness can empower a president. Again, we can only begin to properly estimate the political ramifications of Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis when we know his prognosis. It is another element of uncertainty in this strangest and most uncertain of election years. *Timothy J Lynch is an Associate Professor of American Politics at the University of Melbourne.