Momentum for local economy

The economic recovery in Nelson-Tasman is starting to gain momentum, a new report has found.

Infometric’s December 2025 quarterly economic monitor for the region shows signs of recovery, with economic activity rising 1.1% over 2025, including a 2.5% lift in the December quarter.

“The Nelson-Tasman economy is on the improve,” the report released on Thursday said.

Among the positive takeaways are a 0.6% increase in the number of businesses in the region, traffic flows up 4.9%, and commercial vehicle registrations up 9.4%, all over the 2025 calendar year.

But, the report also show the improvements have been slow to translate to the labour market.

Employment across the region fell 0.4% in the December 2025 quarter, ending the year down 1.3%., while the unemployment rate jumped to 3.9% on average over the year.

That remained below the national rate of 5.3%.

The soft labour market impacted consumer spending, which was down 0.2% in 2025.

Spending was slightly stronger in Nelson, up 0.4%, compared to a 0.7% drop in Tasman.

In the construction industry, “activity is starting to firm up”, the report said.

There was a 14.4% increase in residential consents and a high level of non-residential building consents, although the value of the latter fell 17.1% compared to a year ago.

There was a 4% fall in tourism spending and 1.5% fall in guest nights over the calendar year, the report showed.

“Tourism remains somewhat challenged in Nelson-Tasman,” it said.

“However, international guest nights started to pick up in the December 2025 quarter, recovering lost ground after the Tasman floods.”

The report also said the housing market was recovering in line with the rest of New Zealand, with sales lifting 5.1%, but values remaining soft.

The number of byers using the First Home Loan scheme nearly doubled, and first-home buyers made up 6% of sales.

The report has been welcomed by Nelson Regional Development Agency chief executive Fiona Wilson, who said it showed the recovery was starting to gain traction.

“The recovery is not yet uniform – employment remains soft and tourism is still rebuilding – but the foundations for broader growth in 2026 are now more firmly in place.

“Nelson-Tasman enters the new year with some tangible economic momentum rather than just optimism.”

The growth in traffic volumes was a particularly good sign, she said.

“With population growth remaining weak, this lift in traffic is consistent with increased economic activity rather than simply more residents. In other words, goods are moving, businesses are operating more intensively, and economic throughput is rising – all aligning with the stronger GDP figures.”

The commercial vehicle registrations and business numbers were also positive signs, she said.

“These measures typically move ahead of sustained employment growth and suggest improving business confidence.”

Primary sector performance was playing an important role, with the dairy payout for the 2024/2025 season expected to reach about $172 million in Nelson-Tasman, up from around $130m last season, she said.

“Horticultural prices remain strong, which will help to offset the effects of damage to crops from flood damage last winter.”

While tourism performance was mixed, strengthening activity heading into the summer was “especially valuable for tourism operators and highlights that there have been no lasting impacts on visitor demand from last winter’s floods”, she said.

Christchurch Airport had recorded a record summer of international arrivals, with January reaching 102% of pre-Covid levels.

That boded well for Nelson-Tasman, she said.

“International visitors who arrive in the South Island typically stay longer and travel more extensively through regions such as Tasman, which positions the region well to benefit from this rebound.”

By Warren Gamble, Nelson Mail