Ageing Population Drives Change In Employment Sector For Nelson-Tasman

Primary industries are no longer the biggest employers in Nelson-Tasman as the workforce changes to meet the needs of the ageing population.

A new report has found that, in 2025, healthcare and social assistance “leapfrogged” manufacturing and agriculture, forestry and fishing to become the biggest employing industry in Nelson-Tasman.

The economic update was prepared for the Nelson Regional Development Agency (NRDA) by economist Benje Patterson, and showed that healthcare and social assistance had an 11.4% share of employment in Nelson-Tasman.

Meanwhile, manufacturing had a 10.6% share, and agriculture, forestry and fishing a 10.2% share.

That compares to 2024, when manufacturing and agriculture, forestry and fishing each had a 11.1% share, while healthcare and social assistance was 10.7%.

The 2025 report said the “sharp growth” seen in the healthcare and social assistance sector over recent years could be attributed to the “significant ageing of the region’s population”.

Deaths outweighed births in the region, the report said.

“This demographic tipping point … is a key challenge for employers in the region looking for staff, though there are also opportunities for businesses servicing the ‘silver economy’ associated with older demographics – as is evident by the rapid growth in healthcare and social assistance employment.”

NRDA chief executive Fiona Wilson said it was clear the shift was connected to the changing population.

“There is the direct demand such as that for GP services, hospital services, and the resulting increase in local provision of specialist medical services, plus the notable growth in aged care services as a result of our ageing population and desirability of Nelson-Tasman as a place to retire as well as to work,” she said.

The sector was expected to continue growing, with the ageing trend predicted to continue for another two decades, she said.

“Aged care tends to unfortunately feature high numbers of relatively lower-paid jobs, while general medical care and specialist medical services provide a higher proportion of higher-paid jobs.”

But, there were economic opportunities for the region in catering for a retired population with disposable income.

The ageing population also meant employing older workers needed to become the norm, she said.

Nelson mayor Nick Smith said he was unsurprised to see the employment industry change, particularly following several prominent business closures in 2025.

“We do need to be mindful that it’s actually primary industries like fishing and forestry that create the wealth and the tax revenues to be able to fund those social services, and we need to be very focused on how we can grow that productive part of the economy so that we can afford the quality of care, in areas like health and social services.”

The city needed to plan for an older population, but it also shouldn’t “over-react”, because the older group was also healthier and more active than ever before.

City planning included having a well-equipped hospital, but also good housing choices for the changing population, he said.

Aged Care Association chief executive Tracey Martin said it wasn’t surprising that employment was changing, but she was surprised to see it happening so soon.

“This is the largest growth sector that New Zealand has … so it was bound to end up this way.”

Nelson-Tasman had a lot to offer older people as a retirement destination – but even fit active older people would eventually need increased health care and support, she said.

More planning was needed to make sure there was a big enough workforce to meet the increased need.

“How many registered nurses do we need, how many caregivers do we need, how many chefs – because all of those individuals in residential care need to be fed … all that sort of stuff needs to be thought out and planned.”

Minister for seniors and associate minister for health Casey Costello said the shift in Nelson-Tasman was part of a wider trend.

“It reflects both increasing demand for services and productivity improvements in primary and secondary sectors requiring fewer workers. The region’s growth also reflects rapid population ageing driven in part by internal migration.”

An ageing population didn’t mean higher costs and reduced contribution, she said.

“Older people continue to work, pay taxes, spend in the economy, and volunteer in their communities.

“More people aged 65 and over are in paid work than ever before, and by 2074 the number of older workers is projected to more than double.”

The increased employment in healthcare and social assistance could be expected across the country as the population continued to age, and the government increased funding to the aged care sector by $270 million over the past two years, she said.

By Katie Townshend, Nelson Mail