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Analysis - Of course, Donald Trump can win. Of course he can. That's been the sentiment expressed by most political commentators - and virtually every punter - this year. US President Donald Trump and nominee Joe Biden. Photo: AFP/RNZ/Vinay Ranchhod Many wouldn't have said the same four years ago, when there was a spoken (and unspoken) expectation that Hillary Clinton would become the first woman president of the United States. Now they're saying, in the words of former president George W. Bush, "You fool me, but you can't get fooled again." But is this just an abundance of caution? The polls really would say, "Yes". Joe Biden has been comfortably ahead for months, riding a wave of dissatisfaction over Donald Trump's cavalier handling of the pandemic, the country's economic collapse, and his dismissive response to Black Lives Matter protests. But to suggest he's 12-15 percentage points ahead - as some polls have him - could be misleading. The polls in 2016 under-estimated Trump's support, but the pre-election range then was roughly 1-7 points. Some Republican Party leaders say Trump supporters no longer respond to polls, which many believe are "fake", or are perhaps punking them by falsely claiming they'll vote for Biden. But the significance of this has been relatively debunked - millions of people would have to be making a coordinated effort via "Secret Make America Great Again". If the polls are slightly misleading, it may also be because likely Trump voters are too embarrassed to admit it, and are saying they're undecided. Yet 2016 swung on margin of error. It was expected to be a far closer race, and was one that was eventually decided by less than one percentage point in crucial states. Plus, voter turnout only significantly dipped among likely Democrats - rather than Republicans. Almost 250,000 fewer people voted for Clinton than Barack Obama. Right now, Biden must be smiling looking at the polls. In swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - the polling margin is far wider than it was before the 2016 election. In 2016, Trump won each by less than 1 percent. Photo: AFP / Getty In Pennsylvania now, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Biden ahead 7.3 percent. In 2016, it had Clinton ahead 3.7 percent on election day. In Michigan in 2016, Clinton was ahead 4.2, Biden is currently ahead 8 points. Biden also has a wider margin in Wisconsin than Clinton did in 2016. Charles Franklin of the state's Marquette poll says the number who say they're undecided is half that of four years ago. That's bad news for the president. What's most concerning for Trump is he seems to be losing support among older white voters, while Democratic support among minorities is stronger than four years ago. And Biden looks very likely to secure more of the young vote than Clinton did. Those under 30 who say they will definitely vote is up to 63 percent from 47 percent, according to a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll. Biden is clearly not stirring the same negative emotions that Clinton did. He's also more closely tied to Obama and his enduring popularity. What's also incredible is that many polls have Biden's popularity among women almost double that of Clinton's. And then there's Florida, which has backed every winning candidate since 1996 - the longest run for any state. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden up 4.4 percent in Florida. The website's margin four years ago was 0.6 in favour of Clinton. She lost then by a thin 1.2 percent. Right now, with Trump having been confined to the White House, and only one presidential debate left on the schedule, it's difficult to see much opportunity for him to surge in the next three weeks. Even a miracle vaccine - which Trump has promised Americans this month - may not be enough to save him.

Analysis - Of course, Donald Trump can win. Of course he can. That's been the sentiment expressed by most political commentators - and virtually every punter - this year. US President Donald Trump and nominee Joe Biden. Photo: AFP/RNZ/Vinay Ranchhod Many wouldn't have said the same four years ago, when there was a spoken (and unspoken) expectation that Hillary Clinton would become the first woman president of the United States. Now they're saying, in the words of former president George W. Bush, "You fool me, but you can't get fooled again." But is this just an abundance of caution? The polls really would say, "Yes". Joe Biden has been comfortably ahead for months, riding a wave of dissatisfaction over Donald Trump's cavalier handling of the pandemic, the country's economic collapse, and his dismissive response to Black Lives Matter protests. But to suggest he's 12-15 percentage points ahead - as some polls have him - could be misleading. The polls in 2016 under-estimated Trump's support, but the pre-election range then was roughly 1-7 points. Some Republican Party leaders say Trump supporters no longer respond to polls, which many believe are "fake", or are perhaps punking them by falsely claiming they'll vote for Biden. But the significance of this has been relatively debunked - millions of people would have to be making a coordinated effort via "Secret Make America Great Again". If the polls are slightly misleading, it may also be because likely Trump voters are too embarrassed to admit it, and are saying they're undecided. Yet 2016 swung on margin of error. It was expected to be a far closer race, and was one that was eventually decided by less than one percentage point in crucial states. Plus, voter turnout only significantly dipped among likely Democrats - rather than Republicans. Almost 250,000 fewer people voted for Clinton than Barack Obama. Right now, Biden must be smiling looking at the polls. In swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - the polling margin is far wider than it was before the 2016 election. In 2016, Trump won each by less than 1 percent. Photo: AFP / Getty In Pennsylvania now, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Biden ahead 7.3 percent. In 2016, it had Clinton ahead 3.7 percent on election day. In Michigan in 2016, Clinton was ahead 4.2, Biden is currently ahead 8 points. Biden also has a wider margin in Wisconsin than Clinton did in 2016. Charles Franklin of the state's Marquette poll says the number who say they're undecided is half that of four years ago. That's bad news for the president. What's most concerning for Trump is he seems to be losing support among older white voters, while Democratic support among minorities is stronger than four years ago. And Biden looks very likely to secure more of the young vote than Clinton did. Those under 30 who say they will definitely vote is up to 63 percent from 47 percent, according to a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll. Biden is clearly not stirring the same negative emotions that Clinton did. He's also more closely tied to Obama and his enduring popularity. What's also incredible is that many polls have Biden's popularity among women almost double that of Clinton's. And then there's Florida, which has backed every winning candidate since 1996 - the longest run for any state. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden up 4.4 percent in Florida. The website's margin four years ago was 0.6 in favour of Clinton. She lost then by a thin 1.2 percent. Right now, with Trump having been confined to the White House, and only one presidential debate left on the schedule, it's difficult to see much opportunity for him to surge in the next three weeks. Even a miracle vaccine - which Trump has promised Americans this month - may not be enough to save him.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has imposed a tiered system of further restrictions on parts of England including shutting pubs, to curb an acceleration in Covid-19 cases, although anger is rising at the cost of the curtailment of freedoms. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech to the House of Commons screened on a TV in the Richmond Pub, Liverpool. Photo: AFP Johnson announced a new three-tiered system on Monday in an attempt to standardise a patchwork of often complicated and confusing restrictions imposed across England. MPs will vote on the move on Tuesday. The lockdowns will include shutting pubs and bars in areas placed in the "very high" alert level from Wednesday. The other alert levels in the new system are "medium" and "high". So far, Merseyside in northwest England - which includes the city of Liverpool - is the only area classified at the "very high" level. Gyms, leisure centres, casinos, betting shops and adult gaming centres there will also close, Johnson said. "We must act to save lives," Johnson told parliament, adding that he did not want another UK-wide lockdown and that he understood the frustrations of those chafing at the "repressions of liberty". "If we let the virus rip, then the bleak mathematics dictate that we would suffer not only an intolerable death toll from Covid, but we would put such a huge strain on our NHS (National Health Service) with an uncontrolled second spike that our doctors and nurses would simply be unable to devote themselves to other treatments." Health officials say the latest data showed infections were rising across the north of England and in some more southerly areas too, while the virus was creeping up age bands towards the elderly from those aged 16-29 years. A street sign in Liverpool, north west England. Photo: AFP or licensors Manchester intensive care consultant Jane Eddleston said 30 percent of critical care beds were taken up with Covid-19 patients and this was starting to affect healthcare for others. "This is not how we want to live our lives but this is the narrow path we have to tread between the social and economic trauma of a full lockdown and massive human and indeed economic cost of an uncontained epidemic," Johnson said. "The weeks and months ahead will continue to be difficult and will test the mettle of this country," he said. But as millions of people across the United Kingdom grapple with restrictions, the hospitality sector says it is being brought to its knees by the government. Karen Strickland, landlady of The Grapes pub in Liverpool, said their income was already down by 70 percent with the current enforced countrywide closing time of 10pm, and the government's support scheme help was not enough. "It's absolutely horrendous," she said, adding it made no sense to single out pubs. Under the new restrictions, however, pubs that serve a main lunchtime or evening meal will be allowed to stay open, although they will only be able to serve alcohol as part of such a meal. - Reuters

Refugee rights activists have vandalised Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's car with red paint during his visit to the University of Queensland today. Protesters in Australia splashed red paint on windows and buildings at the University of Queensland. Photo: Screengrab / ABC About 50 protesters gathered at the university's Australian Institute of Bio-engineering and Nanotechnology, where the prime minister was touring earlier today. Police formed a barrier outside the entrance to the building where protesters were chanting "lock up Scomo" while carrying signs and tomatoes. It is understood the Morrison was escorted out through a loading bay, shortly after the building went into lockdown. Red paint was thrown against the glass doors and windows of the building at both entrances. One of the university's security guards was also hit with the paint. Scott Morrison is hustled into a police car while being heckled. Video: ABC Some of the protesters were seen wearing masks and holding signs that read "free the refugees" and "indefinite detention is torture". After discovering the prime minister was no longer inside the building the protesters left the site. The protesters are part of the same group that have been taking action outside the Kangaroo Point Central Hotel and Apartments this year. They are protesting the indefinite detention of 120 men inside the accommodation facility who were moved there from offshore detention as part of the medevac bill. Over the last month, protest action outside the hotel in Kangaroo Point has become less frequent. Protesters threw paint and fruit at buildings and Scott Morrison's car. Video: ABC 'Just a vocal protest' Senior Sergeant Leonie Scott told the ABC that protesters "wilfully damaged the site of the building by throwing paint, tomatoes and other fruit items". "The building went into lockdown [so] it didn't disturb the business continuity of the people occupying the student facility," he said. "Because of the damage done to the front door people are able to leave but no one is able to go into the building at this stage. "The prime minister has left unscathed." One woman was arrested at the scene. Scott said she was not expecting protesters to attend the university today. "We knew that the prime minister was in attendance but it was surprising that the protesters arrived," she said. "We were able to give a good policing response to the event and there's been no further issues. "Protesters were just wanting to give a vocal protest. I didn't see any disturbance otherwise. "Now it seems quelled and everything is back to normal." - ABC